Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
